Gas, from the price of Amsterdam to the climate: towards a drop in the bill in January

Service Dear energy According to the president of the Regulatory Authority for energy, networks and the environment Stefano Besseghini, the price of gas will remain stable “net of unforeseeable events” while “in the second half of the year, with the diversification” of the gas supply with the ‘start-up of the first regasification terminal in the spring, “a stable signal of reduction” may arrive by Andrea Carli 5 January 2023 Gas, the December bill increases by 23.3%3′ reading If the calm after the storm will arrive shortly, already from this month or from February, or if instead we have to wait for a trend reversal in the second half of the mission’ year, it is still difficult to alarm. For now we know what happened: last year’s great was characterized by greater spending on the gas bill. In December, for customers who are still on the protected market, the increase communicated by Arera is 23.3% compared to November. Despite the various savings made, 2022 brought an account to the typical family of 1,866 euros with an increase of 64.8% on 2021 Now two factors could play in favor of easing the pressure on household pockets: the drop in the price of gas on the Amsterdam TTF platform and the mild climate. The decrease in the price of gas and the possible impact on the bill as early as February One factor to take into consideration is the drop in gas prices, also thanks to the cost cap decided by the EU. In fact, with the new year the price reached 70 euros per megawatt hour at the start. A year earlier it was at 73 euros per MWh. The day before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and therefore the outbreak of the conflict which greatly affected the course of negotiations, the nervousness of the raw material markets and the volatility of the price – it was at 88 euros per MWh. On the day the war broke out, it shot up to 127 euros per MWh. On Wednesday 4 January, the TTF future lost another 10%, settling at 65 euros per megawatt hour, the lowest since November 2021. During the session, gas lost up to 11.5%, to 64 euros. If the downward trend were to continue throughout the month of January, already February could see a reduction in the bill. Tabarelli (Nomisma Energia): possible 30% drop in the January gas bill This circumstance is confirmed by Davide Tabarelli, president of Nomisma Energia. In the first quarter of 2023, the electricity bill “collapsed”, he observes, with a decrease of 19.5%, “we wait four weeks and we can have a 30% drop” in the January gas tariff. And, “unless a cataclysm comes from Ukraine and a freezing cold, the potential inflation rate should fall below 10%, even up to 6%”. It should be “the great of increases”. continues Tabarelli, who also underlines “the positive signals coming from energy prices, with the price of oil having dropped below 80 dollars a barrel” which “also helps exports”. Besseghini (Arera): stable reduction in the price of gas in the second half of 2023 The president of the Regulatory Authority for energy, networks and the environment Stefano Besseghini brakes and outlines a more prudent situation. In a speech on Sky TG24 economy, he made it clear that the gas price will remain stable “net of unforeseeable events” while “in the second half of the year, with the diversification” of the gas supply with the start-up of the first regasification terminal in the spring , “a stable signal of reduction” may arrive. The mild winter There is another factor that could lead to savings for families on the gas bill as early as next month. And this factor is represented by a fairly mild winter today. Faced with temperatures that were higher than usual, families were able to reduce consumption. These temperature levels also preserve gas supplies, avoiding the risk of rationing. Concerns about inventories are easing, with their fill level above the five-year seasonal norm. source

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